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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

2016 Election Predictions

I'm posting these today so that I can look back on them later and see which ones hit the mark, or touch it peripherally.

I hate these predictions. I hope the entire string is wrong (see the second half for what I WANT to happen).

  • Hillary will continue to refuse to release the transcripts of her Wall Street speeches.
  • Hillary will refuse to debate Bernie
  • Hillary will win the Democratic nomination.
  • Presidential candidate Hillary will NOT face any indictment or any investigation from the FBI more stringent than what has already (not) occurred.
  • Both Hillary and Trump will have scandalous mentions in "The Panama Papers:" it will be too late to do anything about it.
  • Trump will continue to be an embarrassment and, rather than lose supporters he will gain them.
  • Fake transcripts of Hillary's Wall Street speeches will be released by GOP operatives. They will demonstrate her voicing promises that she will not undermine them and will continue to embolden the strong financial sector.
  • The fake speeches will further erode her position among progressives who dislike her and the poll results immediately thereafter will be damaging.
  • In response she will release her own fake speeches and guarantee they are exactly what she said and that they outlined a need to rein in the Wall Street tyranny in an effort to help the good of the country as a whole which will only result in greater growth for Wall Street executives in the long run.
  • Anonymous will obtain and release the real speeches. They will be more like the GOP fakes than her fakes.
  • Trump will continue to refuse to release his taxes.
  • Anonymous will release his taxes.
  • None of his supporters will care - those who hate him will hate him more.
  • The "mudslinging" campaigns of the PACs will be the worst even seen.
  • Trump will manage to personally profit off the $17M loan he made to his campaign in multiple ways. 
  • Trump will be shown to directly profit from all of the campaign merchandising which will have been sourced to companies he owns.
  • Trump will win the election with a margin in the low double digits.
  • Bernie supporters will "thank" the democratic party and anti-Bernie Hillary supporters for their part in the destruction of America. 
  • The democratic party will break apart in a manner worse than the Tea Party momentum has done to the GOP.
  • The GOP will push for the FBI investigation of Hillary to ramp up considerably.
  • Trump will appoint a Supreme Court Justice to replace Scalia that the GOP accepts; violating the law of appointing Obama's nominee. This appointment will be a business-friendly justice of conservative leanings.
  • Trump will pass an executive order to create a Muslim registry; it will be contested in the courts. Until it is settled there will be significant issues and domestic terrorism AGAINST Muslims.
  • The executive order will take at least two years to be settled by which time the attacks against Muslims will be found to be grounds to enforce the registry "for their own protection."
  • Trump will enact the TPP. It will damage the US economy.
  • Trump will allow womens' and minority rights to be rewound considerably.
  • Trump will support and enact plans that damage net neutrality and support the RIAA and MPAA's attempts to stranglehold creative media.
  • Trump will, at some point, attack the Americans with Disabilities Act, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and every other social program as tools to support illegal immigrants and lazy people with no other purposes.
  • Trump will increase military spending and work on shifting his own investments into military suppliers.
  • Trump will undo the Affordable Care Act and enable private health insurance providers to enact greater and greater restrictions on their customers while increasing premiums. The middle class will be priced out of health insurance by the end of his first term unless their company offers it; even then it will be difficult for many to afford it.
  • Trump will enact trade policies designed to help America.. what he means by this is "Rich Americans." These policies will be disastrous for everyone else.
  • Trump, by the start of the fourth year, will engage in an armed conflict somewhere that will pour government money into supplying the military (and earning the rich stockholders money) while creating a means to bleed off the growing resentment among the young people through military recruitment. 
  • The recruitment efforts of the military will fail to gain interest as the disenfranchised youth will not want to fight for their country.
  • The Allies of the US will abandon us.
  • We WILL have a significant attack on US soil from ISIS because of our treatment of Muslims domestically and out foreign meddling. These will be conducted by "sleeper cells." This will be used to reinforce the treatment of Muslims and expand it to other suspect groups.
  • We will also have several attacks from disenfranchised, crazy, white men who are protesting the conditions of the country. These will NOT be called terrorism and will be flipped to blame the Muslims and other "undesirables" as causing the societal problems that led these protestors to do what they did. At least one of these will be on a government building, at least one will be targeting Muslims. 
  • The middle class will deteriorate at an unprecedented rate and go into a death spiral resulting in a new Great Depression. Trump will NOT pour money into work projects to stave off the worst of it and turn things around.
  • I dare not predict whether he will be able to turn the entire situation such that he gets reelected or not. 

What I WANT to happen:
  • Bernie takes the nomination. In an effort to bridge the gap in the party he negotiates with the party for the current party president to stop down in exchange for making Hillary the VP.
  • The Bernie - Hillary ticket beats Trump by a double-digit margin.
  • The GOP fights everything they accomplish "tooth and nail" and it results in NOTHING getting done in the first term....
  • The down ticket positions shift toward Bernie supporters / true progressives.
  • The GOP cannot fight the appointment of a progressive SCotUS Justice. Bernie re-nominates Obama's choice as that is who should be in there by law.
  • Bernie pushes for obstructionist charges (of some sort) to be applied to politicians who deliberately refuse to do their job under the law.
  • Citizen's United gets repealed.

  • Bernie and Hillary get reelected; with the support of the new Senators and Congresspeople they accomplish universal health care and public universities being tuition free.
  • Trade deals are rebuilt to boost the middle class and allow the investment in them through education and healthcare to grow. 
  • Small businesses appear and flourish when they do not have to worry about healthcare.
  • Healthcare costs go down as hospitals have fewer emergency rooms visits for things that should have been handled as preventatives.
  • Military actions and placements are retracted and the military spending is reduced. Foreign bases begin to be closed.
  • US Allies welcome the US to the modern era of being an advanced country again.
  • A unified UN front is able to contain terrorism in the middle east and, through efforts to stop direct interference it fades through attrition as the US is no longer perpetuating it.